my thoughts on the Giants

A more personal look at the San Francisco Giants. By position.
(not the New York Giants, though the SF Giants did move here from NY fifty years ago).

Catcher - Bengie Molina, with backup help from Eliezer Alfonzo and Guillermo Rodriguez. This should be a solid position, and they know roughly what to expect from these guys. Molina had a solid 2007. Ideally, he hits somewhere else besides #4 in the lineup, but this will be a "complimentary lineup". His biggest downside is his weight and speed. But he's a competitor and a decent bat.

Infield.
1B - This will be a platoon. Dan Ortmeier has the job, but Travis Ishikawa could get some playing time. They might bring in a veteran or get Aurilia to help out, but the position should be streaky this year. I expect these guys to bat #7 or #8 in the lineup. They are quick, thankfully. So, they will contribute once they get on base. It could be a great position, or a sore spot.
2B - It looks like Kevin Frandsen will be the starter, but the Giants would feel much more relieved if Ray Durham returned to his old form. Apparently, his RISPs are good, so he can help the team score runs. Honestly, if you don't look at his salary, he offers you a potential late-game pinch hitter, and a backup position player. That's about it.
SS - Omar Vizquel is a good defensive shortstop. He is one of the greatest of all time. He is a veteran with a passion for the game. He helps your team by giving your opponent outs instead of runners. And he's a stabilizing factor for your team's defense. He's a threat to opposing runners and batters, and he's a help to your pitcher. He has the ability to be a decent hitter, but the defense is the reason he is on this team. Baseball is a defensive game. Don't overlook his contribution. The Giants will want to develop a replacement this year to learn from Vizquel and keep the position a strength when he eventually retires.
3B - Could be Joe Crede. Could be Morgan Ensberg. Could be a promotion from the Farm system. We don't know. It could be Pedro Feliz, but that is doubtful. New blood is needed. It's a position that is open for anyone with the potential to fill it. This should be a strange year.
Utility - Rich Aurilia will earn his dues this year. Frankly, the Giants need a solid utility player. Frandsen will also contribute in this capacity, at least for some games. Eugenio Velez will play, too. At the very least, Velez will be a pinch runner.

Outfield.
RF - Randy Winn, barring any trades. Nate Schierholtz will play on occasion.
CF - Aaron Rowand, who will play most of the year. Could Schierholtz be his protégé?
LF - Dave Roberts and Rajai Davis. In the batting order, the position moves from cleanup to lead off.

Pitching.
Matt Cain - The guy is one of the best in the game, and is gaining experience. He's also their youngest starter.
Barry Zito - He throws one of the most bizarre curveballs in the game. When he pitches at the top of his game, opposing batters get loopy. His fastball is hittable, but he messes with hitters with his changeup.
Tim Lincecum - The "kid" (he's a few months older than Cain) is good. He has the potential to shut down hitters. If he continues to adapt to the MLB at the rate he already has, he could be the Giants top pitcher. His motion, fastball, curveball, and changeup are remarkable.
Noah Lowry - Lowry is a solid pitcher. He will continue to help the Giants stay in close games as long as he keeps healthy. The issues he faced near the end of last season were minimal. The Giants shut him down to protect him for this year. Trade negotiations involving his name have quieted down since Aaron Rowand was signed, but I wouldn't be surprised if his name pops up again when the mid-season trade deadline approaches.
Kevin Correia - He's one of my favorites because of his performance as a starter at the end of the 2007 season. His control seems to be excellent ever since he moved back to the starting role. Not a bad "bottom of the rotation" guy at all.

In limbo roles: Jonathan Sanchez and Pat Misch. These two are great guys for the Giants to have in reserve roles, and are examples of the Giants starting pitching depth. Brad Hennessey could also be in a limbo situation. None of these pitchers are your ideal closer, and they are bottom of the rotation if they are starters, but they could be great "innings eaters".

Closers: Brian Wilson and Tyler Walker emerged near the end of last year as bullpen anchors. The rest of the bullpen is a little streaky. The team needs stability. These two at least provide hope that the team can finish out games, not surrender games.


Lineup:
Dave Robers/ Rajai Davis
Kevin Frandsen
Randy Winn
Aaron Rowand
Bengie Molina
Durham/Aurilia
Omar Vizquel
Dan Ortmeier/Travis Ishikawa
Pitcher

the NL West, stats, and the SF Giants in a post-Bonds world.

This blog is going to be a far cry from my typical music, film, and books posts. It's the baseball off-season, and with Spring Training approaching, it's time to analyze the last season.

Let's look at the 2007 National League Ranks, according to ESPN. We'll start off with a look at the major batting statistics, and see what we can discern from the major statistics.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Batting
BA R OBP SLG OPS SB
16th 14th 16th 9th 13th 5th

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Batting
BA R OBP SLG OPS SB
14th 15th 14th 16th 16th 4th

The Giants (a last place team) rank better than the Diamondbacks (a first place team) in batting average, on base percentage, and stolen bases. Fantasy baseball players would easily choose those SF numbers over the AZ numbers, wouldn't they? So, what batting stats give us any indication why the Diamondbacks would be a significantly better team, record-wise? It's all about the slugging, and consequently the on-base-plus slugging percentage, as well as the amount of runs scored (but they really didn't do a great job at scoring runs).

Now, let's look at pitching statistics.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Pitching
ERA BAA OPS SV WHIP QS
4th 7th 7th 1st 7th 4th

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Pitching
ERA BAA OPS SV WHIP QS
5th 5th 5th 12th 9th 3rd

The Giants rank better than Arizona in quality starts (QS), batting average against, and opponents on-base-plus slugging. Clearly, the difference comes down down to saves and total walks-plus-hits-per-inning pitched, and consequently the total ERA.

The Diamondbacks had the best record in the National League because of their bullpen, and their opportunistic hitting.

===========================
Essentially, the Giants have said in the offseason, "We are going to play small ball." Their answer is to be better in numbers where they are decent (ERA, BAA, WHIP, and Stolen bases), hope their Quality Starts will remain at a high level or improve, and pray that their bullpen will improve with experience to achieve a higher amount of Saves. Bringing on Aaron Rowand was completely about his fighter spirit and his ability to play 161 games(!) vs. Barry Bonds' 126 games. Sure, Bonds is a beast at the on-base-plus-slugging category, but unfortunately this resource was not available for 35 games of the season! Also, Bonds hit more home runs, but Rowand's doubles are probably his best asset to the Giants' new desire to "rally" more. Will it all payoff for them? Doubtful, because their division is cutthroat. But, their philosophy isn't as flawed as it sometimes sounds. Their pitching needs to be dominant, though. And they need to get really, really, ridiculously good at playing small ball to heat up their run production.

The Diamondbacks have gone after the Quality Starts and ERA categories, previously dominated by the Padres pitchers (who killed everyone, particularly the Giants).

The Rockies won with excellent hitting all year, and decent pitching. Against NL teams, their pitching, fielding, and good hitting dominated in the playoffs. The Red Sox just happened to have slightly better pitching and hitting, and be hot at the right time when the Rockies cooled in the snow. Their entire team is young enough that they have the potential to improve. Scary, huh?

The Dodgers walked the middle of the road in most statistical categories. They were closer to the top in some, closer to the bottom in others. In the NL West, they just didn't have enough of an advantage to go above .506 in the winning percentage. It looks like their hope is that a) Joe Torre will manage them to be more competitive, b) Andruw Jones will give them the good bat that Juan Pierre failed to provide, and c) Kuroda

That's how I see the NL West in offseason. Remember, in 2005 the Padres won the division with the record the Dodgers had this year (82-80), and people were wondering if they could have made it to the playoffs with a sub-.500 record. Now, the NL West broadly considered one of the most competitive (top-to-bottom, not just the top) divisions in all of baseball, and the pitching is leading the way. The Rockies should be excellent, as long as they keep themselves on top of their game.

My advice:
Watch the Quality Starts. Watch the number of Saves. Watch the amount of Runs scored.