Giants in November 2009

Here are a few guesses. Some of these are alternative versions

SP Tim Lincecum
SP Matt Cain
SP Barry Zito
SP Jonathan Sanchez
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Madison Bumgarner

LRP Joe Martinez
MRP Brandon Medders
MRP Waldis Joaquin
MRP Dan Runzler
SU Jeremy Affeldt
SU Sergio Romo
CL Brian Wilson

Bench
IF Edgar Renteria
Matt Downs may get called upon again
Ishikawa
Eric Byrnes signs a minor league contract with the Giants

I expect the Giants to look at these guys:
Nick Johnson
Adrian Beltre
Mark DeRosa
Xavier Nady
Russell Branyan
Rick Ankiel
Mike Cameron
Chone Figgins

Lineup

Eugenio Velez / Andres Torres
Freddy Sanchez
Pablo Sandoval
Nick Johnson / Russell Branyan
Juan Uribe / Mark DeRosa
Nate Schierholtz / John Bowker
Aaron Rowand
Buster Posey
Pitcher

the SF Giants in August 2008

Here's a return to writing about the Giants. I've been following them quite a bit this season, and checking up with three main blogs. I'll discuss those blogs more at the end of this post.

First, let's re-visit my preview for the season, position-by-position.

Catcher - "Bengie Molina, with backup help from Eliezer Alfonzo and Guillermo Rodriguez" is what I fearlessly predicted at the start of the season. Steve Holm showed up in spring training and the Giants looked back only for an unfortunate month when Alfonzo returned from a drug-policy suspension. Molina remains a competitor and a decent bat. He slumped a few times in the middle parts of the season, but he still gets a lot of my respect. Top-10 draft pick Buster Posey was a great selection. Assuming he signs, it will be nice to see how his professional baseball career line goes.

Infield.
1B - "This will be a platoon. Dan Ortmeier has the job, but Travis Ishikawa could get some playing time. They might bring in a veteran or get Aurilia to help out, but the position should be streaky this year. I expect these guys to bat #7 or #8 in the lineup. They are quick, thankfully. So, they will contribute once they get on base. It could be a great position, or a sore spot." That's what I previously said. Ortmeier slumped coming out of spring training and Ishikawa predictably stayed around the minors. BUT, John Bowker turned out to be a nice addition to this team. He's what we kinda hoped Ortmeier to be, and his upside is a bit higher. I dunno if he's the stereotypical big-bat corner infielder, but he's pretty good defensively and fun to watch. Yep, Aurilia helped out, as expected. But this seems like Bowker's job so long as he continues to develop.

2B - Kevin Frandsen's achilles tear bummed me out early on. It's too bad the team couldn't watch him help out. He had a rough Spring. The Giants were "relieved Ray Durham returned to his old form," to help the weak line-up, and to become trade-able. This worked out well for the team. The team doesn't have a 2B in place for next year who offers me any reasonable hope. Maybe they are looking for an acquisition?

SS - Omar Vizquel remains "a good defensive shortstop. He is one of the greatest of all time. He is a veteran with a passion for the game. He helps your team by giving your opponent outs instead of runners. And he's a stabilizing factor for your team's defense. He's a threat to opposing runners and batters, and he's a help to your pitcher." BUT, the Giants MUST move on to develop a replacement this year to learn from Vizquel and keep the position a strength when he eventually retires. They might be doing this, but it's tough to tell what their game plan is the way they are handling Burris and Ochoa.

3B - "Could be Joe Crede. Could be Morgan Ensberg. Could be a promotion from the Farm system. We don't know. It could be Pedro Feliz, but that is doubtful. New blood is needed. It's a position that is open for anyone with the potential to fill it. This should be a strange year." YEP. The Giants held out until the eleventh hour and then picked up Jose Castillo. Joe Castle turned out to be an inexpensive option who contributed nicely in spots, but never really showed that he should be the team's third baseman of the future. I expect the Giants to be involved in the trade and free agent markets in the coming Winter League Hot Stove. But, I also expect them to wait around for a good option. They won't pick up someone who is not relatively young with good years ahead of him because they already have a couple veterans who fill the veteran niche.

Utility - Rich Aurilia "earn[ed] his dues this year. Frankly, the Giants need[ed] a solid utility player." Hopefully, they can find a good waiver wire trade. Eugenio Velez turned out to be little more than "a pinch runner" because he had some major problems offensively and defensively after two months of the season. The team will keep tabs on him, but he's not the answer for this offense.

Outfield.
RF - "Randy Winn, barring any trades."[still might happen] "Nate Schierholtz will play on occasion"[regularly, in the minors, but he's the RF for next year].
CF - Aaron Rowand, who "play[ed] most of the year," often through injuries. He's an anchor
LF - "Dave Roberts and Rajai Davis. In the batting order, the position moves from cleanup to lead off." Thank the Maker, Fred Lewis turned out to be better than expected. Lewis is the answer for next year.

Pitching.
There's too much to talk about, so I will focus on Correia and Sanchez.
"Kevin Correia - He's one of my favorites because of his performance as a starter at the end of the 2007 season... Not a bad "bottom of the rotation" guy at all." He started well, then got injured, and has had trouble coming back.
"In limbo role: Jonathan Sanchez ... great guy for the Giants to have in reserve roles, and [is an] example of the Giants starting pitching depth." Sanchez started out amazing, but has struggled in the last few months.

Basically, Correia and Sanchez were relievers for most of last year. They both are obviously adjusting to a full season as starters. I think Correia's injury set him back on developing his long-term endurance. Sanchez started amazing, but his control has slipped as his body has tired. I'm sure his mechanics are breaking down a little from being tired. The Giants are building up his endurance this year, and they'll be patient with him until September. The Giants will likely be patient with Correia because he tends to pitch 4 SOLID innings each outing. He just needs to add an extra game or two onto that. I assume both of these guys will be around next year.

More in next post.

Kiss By A Rose

The following are all books I read very quickly and enjoyed immensely. They are page-turners that will jump-start your pleasure reading,

bellwether by Connie Willis - a book about fads, chaos theory, working in offices, attraction, and sheep. I liked it.

Coraline by Neil Gaiman - the author mentions in supplemental notes that children "see it as an adventure," while it "gives nightmares" to adults. The plot follows a young girl who finds a portal to a mysteriously dark alternative world. In this inverted yet seductive world, her Other Mother has buttons for eyes and traps innocent folk in a small closet. If you like this short, dark fairy tale, I also recommend you check out Gaiman's "faerie" tale for adults, Stardust.

Bear v. Shark by Chris Bachelder - fictional book about a family/culture obsessed with a reality TV event hosted in Las Vegas, where a shark fights a bear. This book is funny and prophetic. The writing style mimics and mocks our sound byte multimedia digital age.

Cat's Cradle by Kurt Vonnegut - a journalist goes through wild, apocalyptic adventures while trying to interview the grown-up offspring of the scientist who invented the Atom Bomb (and another substance called Ice-9). Vonnegut is quick and witty. His satire is comical. His insight is scathing.

Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card - I recommend other books in the "Ender" and "Shadow" series, but this first one is the best. It's a sci-fi book about genius children trained by a global military to fight an interstellar war. These children think like adults, but they run into the same struggles as all youth. Even as an adult, I still find myself relating to Ender's story. Card writes with a tactful use of perspective, logic, philosophy, war games.

I also recommend Card's thriller about government and American politics, Empire, in which America responds to the assassination of both the President and the Vice President. The politics are muddy. The country is divided. Powerful men and women fight for more power and control. This fictional book is timely, especially considering the upcoming election cycle and America's ongoing war on terror.

the Super Bowl

The last time the New England Patriots played the New York Giants was the last week of the regular season.

Here's what the game looked like:

	New England	3	13	7	15	38	Final
	NY Giants	7	14	7	7	35

The Giants outscored the Patriots in the first half. That is step one in beating the Patriots. Lead at half time. Or, be tied at half time AND get the ball first in the second half AND score a touchdown first. Then, don't let the Patriots outscore you in the fourth quarter.

It's like John Madden says, "You gotta score more points than the other team." Or, "You gotta get the ball in the end zone and score a touchdown!"

This will be a great Super Bowl, regardless of the outcome. I loved watching these two teams play a game of "pride" during Week 17. I think both teams knew they were setting their sights on this coming Super Bowl when they played that game. Both the Giants and the Patriots advanced through the playoffs with the confidence and stature of champions who were approaching an ultimate goal.

Tomorrow, they get to play the game on the field. It all comes down to a match-up on the good old gridiron. A great, historical season comes to an end on Sunday night.

my thoughts on the Giants

A more personal look at the San Francisco Giants. By position.
(not the New York Giants, though the SF Giants did move here from NY fifty years ago).

Catcher - Bengie Molina, with backup help from Eliezer Alfonzo and Guillermo Rodriguez. This should be a solid position, and they know roughly what to expect from these guys. Molina had a solid 2007. Ideally, he hits somewhere else besides #4 in the lineup, but this will be a "complimentary lineup". His biggest downside is his weight and speed. But he's a competitor and a decent bat.

Infield.
1B - This will be a platoon. Dan Ortmeier has the job, but Travis Ishikawa could get some playing time. They might bring in a veteran or get Aurilia to help out, but the position should be streaky this year. I expect these guys to bat #7 or #8 in the lineup. They are quick, thankfully. So, they will contribute once they get on base. It could be a great position, or a sore spot.
2B - It looks like Kevin Frandsen will be the starter, but the Giants would feel much more relieved if Ray Durham returned to his old form. Apparently, his RISPs are good, so he can help the team score runs. Honestly, if you don't look at his salary, he offers you a potential late-game pinch hitter, and a backup position player. That's about it.
SS - Omar Vizquel is a good defensive shortstop. He is one of the greatest of all time. He is a veteran with a passion for the game. He helps your team by giving your opponent outs instead of runners. And he's a stabilizing factor for your team's defense. He's a threat to opposing runners and batters, and he's a help to your pitcher. He has the ability to be a decent hitter, but the defense is the reason he is on this team. Baseball is a defensive game. Don't overlook his contribution. The Giants will want to develop a replacement this year to learn from Vizquel and keep the position a strength when he eventually retires.
3B - Could be Joe Crede. Could be Morgan Ensberg. Could be a promotion from the Farm system. We don't know. It could be Pedro Feliz, but that is doubtful. New blood is needed. It's a position that is open for anyone with the potential to fill it. This should be a strange year.
Utility - Rich Aurilia will earn his dues this year. Frankly, the Giants need a solid utility player. Frandsen will also contribute in this capacity, at least for some games. Eugenio Velez will play, too. At the very least, Velez will be a pinch runner.

Outfield.
RF - Randy Winn, barring any trades. Nate Schierholtz will play on occasion.
CF - Aaron Rowand, who will play most of the year. Could Schierholtz be his protégé?
LF - Dave Roberts and Rajai Davis. In the batting order, the position moves from cleanup to lead off.

Pitching.
Matt Cain - The guy is one of the best in the game, and is gaining experience. He's also their youngest starter.
Barry Zito - He throws one of the most bizarre curveballs in the game. When he pitches at the top of his game, opposing batters get loopy. His fastball is hittable, but he messes with hitters with his changeup.
Tim Lincecum - The "kid" (he's a few months older than Cain) is good. He has the potential to shut down hitters. If he continues to adapt to the MLB at the rate he already has, he could be the Giants top pitcher. His motion, fastball, curveball, and changeup are remarkable.
Noah Lowry - Lowry is a solid pitcher. He will continue to help the Giants stay in close games as long as he keeps healthy. The issues he faced near the end of last season were minimal. The Giants shut him down to protect him for this year. Trade negotiations involving his name have quieted down since Aaron Rowand was signed, but I wouldn't be surprised if his name pops up again when the mid-season trade deadline approaches.
Kevin Correia - He's one of my favorites because of his performance as a starter at the end of the 2007 season. His control seems to be excellent ever since he moved back to the starting role. Not a bad "bottom of the rotation" guy at all.

In limbo roles: Jonathan Sanchez and Pat Misch. These two are great guys for the Giants to have in reserve roles, and are examples of the Giants starting pitching depth. Brad Hennessey could also be in a limbo situation. None of these pitchers are your ideal closer, and they are bottom of the rotation if they are starters, but they could be great "innings eaters".

Closers: Brian Wilson and Tyler Walker emerged near the end of last year as bullpen anchors. The rest of the bullpen is a little streaky. The team needs stability. These two at least provide hope that the team can finish out games, not surrender games.


Lineup:
Dave Robers/ Rajai Davis
Kevin Frandsen
Randy Winn
Aaron Rowand
Bengie Molina
Durham/Aurilia
Omar Vizquel
Dan Ortmeier/Travis Ishikawa
Pitcher

the NL West, stats, and the SF Giants in a post-Bonds world.

This blog is going to be a far cry from my typical music, film, and books posts. It's the baseball off-season, and with Spring Training approaching, it's time to analyze the last season.

Let's look at the 2007 National League Ranks, according to ESPN. We'll start off with a look at the major batting statistics, and see what we can discern from the major statistics.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Batting
BA R OBP SLG OPS SB
16th 14th 16th 9th 13th 5th

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Batting
BA R OBP SLG OPS SB
14th 15th 14th 16th 16th 4th

The Giants (a last place team) rank better than the Diamondbacks (a first place team) in batting average, on base percentage, and stolen bases. Fantasy baseball players would easily choose those SF numbers over the AZ numbers, wouldn't they? So, what batting stats give us any indication why the Diamondbacks would be a significantly better team, record-wise? It's all about the slugging, and consequently the on-base-plus slugging percentage, as well as the amount of runs scored (but they really didn't do a great job at scoring runs).

Now, let's look at pitching statistics.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Pitching
ERA BAA OPS SV WHIP QS
4th 7th 7th 1st 7th 4th

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Pitching
ERA BAA OPS SV WHIP QS
5th 5th 5th 12th 9th 3rd

The Giants rank better than Arizona in quality starts (QS), batting average against, and opponents on-base-plus slugging. Clearly, the difference comes down down to saves and total walks-plus-hits-per-inning pitched, and consequently the total ERA.

The Diamondbacks had the best record in the National League because of their bullpen, and their opportunistic hitting.

===========================
Essentially, the Giants have said in the offseason, "We are going to play small ball." Their answer is to be better in numbers where they are decent (ERA, BAA, WHIP, and Stolen bases), hope their Quality Starts will remain at a high level or improve, and pray that their bullpen will improve with experience to achieve a higher amount of Saves. Bringing on Aaron Rowand was completely about his fighter spirit and his ability to play 161 games(!) vs. Barry Bonds' 126 games. Sure, Bonds is a beast at the on-base-plus-slugging category, but unfortunately this resource was not available for 35 games of the season! Also, Bonds hit more home runs, but Rowand's doubles are probably his best asset to the Giants' new desire to "rally" more. Will it all payoff for them? Doubtful, because their division is cutthroat. But, their philosophy isn't as flawed as it sometimes sounds. Their pitching needs to be dominant, though. And they need to get really, really, ridiculously good at playing small ball to heat up their run production.

The Diamondbacks have gone after the Quality Starts and ERA categories, previously dominated by the Padres pitchers (who killed everyone, particularly the Giants).

The Rockies won with excellent hitting all year, and decent pitching. Against NL teams, their pitching, fielding, and good hitting dominated in the playoffs. The Red Sox just happened to have slightly better pitching and hitting, and be hot at the right time when the Rockies cooled in the snow. Their entire team is young enough that they have the potential to improve. Scary, huh?

The Dodgers walked the middle of the road in most statistical categories. They were closer to the top in some, closer to the bottom in others. In the NL West, they just didn't have enough of an advantage to go above .506 in the winning percentage. It looks like their hope is that a) Joe Torre will manage them to be more competitive, b) Andruw Jones will give them the good bat that Juan Pierre failed to provide, and c) Kuroda

That's how I see the NL West in offseason. Remember, in 2005 the Padres won the division with the record the Dodgers had this year (82-80), and people were wondering if they could have made it to the playoffs with a sub-.500 record. Now, the NL West broadly considered one of the most competitive (top-to-bottom, not just the top) divisions in all of baseball, and the pitching is leading the way. The Rockies should be excellent, as long as they keep themselves on top of their game.

My advice:
Watch the Quality Starts. Watch the number of Saves. Watch the amount of Runs scored.

2007 cinema retrospective

The film Mark watched in theaters in 2007:

The Curse of the Golden Flower
Pan's Labyrinth
Children of Men
The Darjeeling Limited
American Gangster
Spiderman 3
Transformers
3:10 To Yuma
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
I Am Legend
The Simpsons Movie

Good:
Pan's Labyrinth was by far the best film experience.
Children of Men was a close second best film experience.
3:10 To Yuma, American Gangster were nice surprises.
The Darjeeling Limited was interesting, weird, fun, and different.

Decent:
Harry Potter 5 and Spiderman 3 were entertaining, but nothing new.
Transformers and The Simpsons movie were funny and good popcorn.

Problematic:
I Am Legend and The Curse of the Golden Flower kept me interested while watching, but left me with a bad taste by the end.


Academy Award forecast:
The best films I saw this year were on last year's Oscar list.
Ratatouille should win best animated feature.
I want to watch No Country For Old Men, but I am reading the book first.